In the context of sports a Collapse is where a team with a statistically insurmountable lead in a game, series or season standings puts on such a poor performance in the remainder of the event that they ultimately lose of fail to advance. Typically the term Collapse is used in relation to a performance in a season with many games, but it was been less commonly applied to single games or matches.[1] A collapse can be considered a form of choking extended over an extended period of time although sometimes a Collapse can be less the result of failure but bad luck or regression to the mean.
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| Year | Sport | Team/Person | Lead | Peak Probability of Victory | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1908 | Baseball | New York Giants | 4.5 games ahead with 21 remaining | 95.5% | 11-10 | Caught by Cubs after 14-2 streak |
| 1921 | Baseball | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.5 games ahead with 34 remaining | 94.6% | 14-23 | Collapse started after 5 game sweep by Giants |
| 1942 | Baseball | Brooklyn Dodgers | 9.5 games ahead with 42 remaining | 96.9% | 25-17 | Caught by Cardinals going 38-6 |
| 1951 | Baseball | Brooklyn Dodgers | 12.5 games ahead with 49 remaining | 99.7% | 25-24 | |
| 1964 | Baseball | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.5 games ahead with 15 remaining | 96.2% | 3-12 | poor management of pitching staff |
| 1969 | Baseball | Chicago Cubs | 8 games ahead with 30 remaining | 97.9% | 15-25 | |
| 1978 | Baseball | Boston Red Sox | 8 games ahead with 48 remaining | 96.5% | 26-22 | Caught by New York Yankees going 35-13 |
| 1978 | American Football | Washington Redskins | 6-0 to start season | 2-8 | ||
| 1983 | Baseball | Atlanta Braves | 6.5 games ahead with 48 remaining | 96.4% | 19-29 | |
| 1993 | Baseball | San Francisco Giants | 9.5 games ahead with 51 remaining | 98.3% | 29-22 | Caught by Braves going 39-11 |
| 1995 | Baseball | California Angels | 9.5 games ahead (12 ahead for Wild Card) with 38 remaining | 99.988% | 12-26 | Statistically worst collapse in history |
| 2002 | Baseball | Boston Red Sox | 3.5 games ahead (6 ahead for Wild Card) with 105 remaining | 95.8% | 53-52 | |
| 2003 | Baseball | Seattle Mariners | 7.5 games ahead (8 ahead for Wild Card) with 92 remaining | 97.9% | 45-47 | |
| 2005 | Baseball | Cleveland Indians | 1.5 games behind (1 game ahead for Wild Card) with 7 remaining | 96.5% | 1-6 | |
| 2007 | Baseball | New York Mets | 7 games ahead (4.5 ahead for Wild Card) with 17 remaining | 99.5% | 5-12 | |
| 2009 | Baseball | Detroit Tigers | 7 games ahead (4 behind for Wild Card) with 26 remaining | 96% | 11-16 | Including one-game tiebreaker with Minnesota Twins |
| 2011 | Baseball | Boston Red Sox | 9 games ahead for Wild Card with 27 remaining | 99.6% | 7-20 | Eliminated on last game of season on 9th inning, 2 strike, 2 out pitch[2] |
| 2011 | Baseball | Atlanta Braves | 8.5 game ahead for Wild Card with 18 remaining | 99.2% | 5-13 |